MELBOURNE, Australia – El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific. According to the latest update from the Bureau of Meteorology of the Australian Government, warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific persist above El Niño thresholds, with warmer water beneath the surface to support that at the surface.
In the atmosphere, cloud, wind and pressure patterns are consistent with El Niño conditions. Climate model forecasts indicate some further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is likely, with SSTs remaining above El Niño thresholds into the early southern hemisphere autumn 2024.
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues. All models indicate that this positive IOD will likely persist into early December. A positive IOD typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive with forecasts indicating it will return to neutral in the coming days.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak. Approximately half of international climate models suggest the MJO will strengthen and move eastwards across the western Pacific later this week. When the MJO is in the western Pacific, there is an increased chance of showers and rain over northern parts of the NT and Queensland.
Global warming continues to influence Australian and global climate. Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were highest on record for their respective months during April to October.
Australia’s climate has warmed by 1.48 ± 0.23 °C since national records began in 1910. There has been an increase in extreme heat events, and extreme fire weather, associated with the warming. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity, short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.
The long-range forecast for Australia indicates below average rainfall is likely for much of northern, western and southern Australia, with warmer days and nights likely almost nationwide. The Bureau’s climate model includes all influences on Australian climate when generating its forecasts.