Monday, May 20, 2024

Conab ups its official estimate for CY 2023/24 to 55.1M bags

MILAN – In its fourth coffee survey released on Thursday, Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) revised upwards its official estimate for the 2023/24 crop season to 55.1 million bags from a previous forecast of 54.36 million bags issued in September. This is an 8.2% increase from a crop of 50.92 bags in 2022/23.

CONAB said Arabica coffee output reached 38.9 million bags, above the 38.16 million forecast before, while Robusta coffee production decreased to 16.17 million bags, slightly below a figure of 16.2 million estimated in September.

The higher crop reflects the improved productivity of 29.4 bags per ha, a 6.3% increase over the previous year.

In addition to this, CONAB saw an increase of 1.8% in the area under production, reaching 1.87 million hectares. The area under formation fell by 9.5%, being estimated at 361.6 thousand hectares.

The volume harvested is the third largest ever in the history of Brazilian coffee, despite the 2023/24 season being an off year in the typical biennial pattern of Arabicas.

It should be noted that last year’s output was affected by low rainfall, droughts and above-normal temperatures, the government agency said in the report.

Arabica coffee production, which represents 70.7% of the total volume harvested in the country, grew by 18.9% over the previous season, thanks to a 2.3% increase in the area under production, combined with an estimated 16.2% gain in productivity, due to more favourable weather conditions compared to the last two harvests.

ConabMinas Gerais, the main coffee producing state, harvested a crop of around 29 million bags, an increase of 32.1% compared to the previous harvest. Despite the effects of the negative biennial being felt in many producing regions, crop performance showed a 24.2% growth in productivity.

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São Paulo, another historic Arabica producer, produced 5.03 million bags, an increase of 14.7% compared to the volume recorded in 2022.

In Paraná, the increase in productivity reached 51.5% with production estimated at 718.5 thousand bags.

In Bahia, the effects of the negative biennial cycle were observed in the coffee plantations of this species, with a 12.8% drop in the harvest, decreasing to 1.1 million bags.

Robusta output, on the other hand, decreased 11.2% year-on-year as top producing state Espírito Santo faced adverse weather conditions especially in early stages of the crop, driving productivity down.

In Espírito Santo, the harvest is estimated at around 13 million bags in total, of which 10.16 million bags of Robusta.

In Rondônia, Brazil’s second largest Robusta producer, production rose to 3.04 million bags, up 8.6% from the previous, as a result of a 16.4% gain in productivity, made possible by favorable climatic conditions, new areas entering into production, new selected varieties with greater productive potential, better crop management and the majority of crops being equipped with irrigation devices.

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